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2012 Sixers Draft Open Thread: Who Do You Want?
The NBA Draft will get underway this evening just around 7:00 PM EST but the Sixers, if they decide to stand pat at the 15th overall pick in the first round, should make a selection some time closer to 9:00 PM.2012 Sixers Draft Open Thread: Who Do You Want?
The NBA Draft will get underway this evening just around 7:00 PM EST but the Sixers, if they decide to stand pat at the 15th overall pick in the first round, should make a selection some time closer to 9:00 PM.Flyers prospect camp to open July 9; Trial on the Isle set for July 11
The Flyers announced today that 2012 Prospect Camp will run from July 9 to July 15 at the Flyers Skate Zone in Voorhees. 43 players will descend upon the practice facility for six on-ice, open-to-the-public practice sessions. The annual Trial on the Isle in Stone Harbor will be held Wed., July 11.
Details for the Trial on the Isle have not yet been released, but here's the full schedule for the Voorhees sessions:
- Monday, July 9: 9:00 am - 12:15 pm
- Tuesday, July 10: 9:00 am - 12:15 pm
- Thursday, July 12: 9:00 am - 12:15 pm
- Friday, July 13: 9:00 am - 12:15 pm
- Saturday, July 14: 9:00 am - 12:15 pm
- Sunday, July 15: Camp Scrimmage 9:00 am
Camp roster can be found here. It's a PDF.
Video: Elton Brand Might Not Get Invited Back to Steve Nash’s Showdown Soccer Event
Elton Brand is not good at soccer. Which is good, since he plays professional basketball.NHL Salary Cap Officially Set At $70.2 Million For 2012 Offseason
(SB Nation) -- The NHL and the NHL Players' Association announced Thursday that the salary cap for the 2012 offseason will be set at $70.2 million, down from an original estimate of $70.3 million set back during the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The lower limit is set at $54.2 million, a number all teams must meet in order to ice a team for the 2012-13 season.
But of course, there's a catch. The rules governing this cap are set by the current collective bargaining agreement, a deal that expires Sept. 15. A work stoppage is expected to begin the 2012-13 season if the NHL and its players cannot agree to a new deal by that date. After negotiations are completed, new terms may be put in place to govern the salary cap and the salary floor, meaning these numbers could and likely will change for the 2012-13 season.
In the meantime, these are the numbers that will govern league business until mid-September. That means free agency, which opens Sun., July 1, will operate under this team payroll range.
For all the news surrounding the NHL's collective bargaining agreement and the ongoing quest to replace it, stick with this StoryStream.
Gameday: Phillies (36-41) vs Pirates (39-35)
Pittsburgh Pirates (39-35) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (36-41)
A.J. Burnett (8-2, 3.24) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-7, 5.75)
TIME: 1:05, Citizens Bank Park
TV: CSN
Weather: upper 80′s, mostly sunny
Media: Twitter and Facebook
In the final game of the four-game series with the Pirates, the Phillies look to win the series after winning two of the first three. Kyle Kendrick will take the mound for the Phillies and A.J. Burnett will start for the Pirates.
Kendrick is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA against the Pirates in his career. He faced them twice earlier this year in releif appearances, and gave up one run over 1.1 innings.
Burnett faced the Phils and shut them down in the 2009 World Series, but overall, he has a 5-9 record against them to go along with a 5.13 ERA. The last time he faced the Phils was in June of 2010 and he gave up 6 runs over 3.1 innings before he was pulled–statistically one of his worst starts of the year.
Lineup: Rollins SS, Pierre LF, Victorino CF, Pence RF, Polanco 3B, Wigginton 1B, Fontenot 2B, Kratz C, Kendrick P
Your Gameday Beer – Coors Light
Tap the Rockies today on this very warm, slightly humid afternoon. I’ve grown to take Coors for what it is, the best of the Big 3. It’s not going to wow you, but it will cool you off and sort of refresh you. On taste alone, St. Bernardus 12, it ain’t. But if you’re at CBP and in need a refresher, you could do worse, I think. It’s Coors, and it won’t kill you. Enjoy the game. -By Pat
Gameday: Phillies (36-41) vs Pirates (39-35)
Pittsburgh Pirates (39-35) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (36-41)
A.J. Burnett (8-2, 3.24) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-7, 5.75)
TIME: 1:05, Citizens Bank Park
TV: CSN
Weather: upper 80′s, mostly sunny
Media: Twitter and Facebook
In the final game of the four-game series with the Pirates, the Phillies look to win the series after winning two of the first three. Kyle Kendrick will take the mound for the Phillies and A.J. Burnett will start for the Pirates.
Kendrick is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA against the Pirates in his career. He faced them twice earlier this year in releif appearances, and gave up one run over 1.1 innings.
Burnett faced the Phils and shut them down in the 2009 World Series, but overall, he has a 5-9 record against them to go along with a 5.13 ERA. The last time he faced the Phils was in June of 2010 and he gave up 6 runs over 3.1 innings before he was pulled–statistically one of his worst starts of the year.
Lineup: Rollins SS, Pierre LF, Victorino CF, Pence RF, Polanco 3B, Wigginton 1B, Fontenot 2B, Kratz C, Kendrick P
Your Gameday Beer – Coors Light
Tap the Rockies today on this very warm, slightly humid afternoon. I’ve grown to take Coors for what it is, the best of the Big 3. It’s not going to wow you, but it will cool you off and sort of refresh you. On taste alone, St. Bernardus 12, it ain’t. But if you’re at CBP and in need a refresher, you could do worse, I think. It’s Coors, and it won’t kill you. Enjoy the game. -By Pat
Game Chat: And On the Second Day, Utley Rested
Chase Utley gets the day off after an impressive debut.The Chad Qualls Nightmare Is Over for Now
The Phillies demoted Chad Qualls this afternoon while giving Jeremy Horst his first shot with the big club.14 Photos of Chase Utley Playing Baseball for the Philadelphia Phillies Last Night
Philadelphia Flyers zone entries, part 4: Team-level results
We previously gave an overview of the zone entry project, and looked at what the data tells us about individual puck-handling and off-puck results.
In this article we'll look at things at the team level, assessing the team's performance as a whole.
The raw numbers
Let's start with some raw numbers; I'll cook them in a bit. Here's the number of shots generated from each type of zone entry at 5-on-5:
| Carry-in | Pass-in | Dump-in | Deflect-in | Misc other | |
| Flyers | 0.558 | 0.554 | 0.244 | 0.251 | 0.549 |
| Opponents | 0.590 | 0.570 | 0.249 | 0.270 | 0.505 |
This tells us a few things:
- The Flyers were generally not as efficient in the offensive end as their opponents -- with the exception of the "other" category, they gave up more shots than they got from each type of entry.
- Possession is everything. If you retain possession as you cross the blue line (carry or pass), you get more than twice as many shots as if you play dump and chase.
- It's been suggested that dump-in numbers may be dragged down by the instances where a player dumps the puck because the defense has played well and he has no good choices so he dumps it in. However, the deflect-in plays are only very slightly more effective, and those are generally dump-and-chase by design.
And here are the numbers on how many of each type of entry there were at 5-on-5:
| Carry-in | Pass-in | Dump-in | Deflect-in | Misc other | |
| Flyers | 1978 | 648 | 1502 | 471 | 379 |
| Opponents | 1859 | 556 | 1495 | 422 | 370 |
Again, some observations:
- The Flyers won the neutral zone more often than their opponents did, getting more of each type of entry.
- The Flyers were able to retain possession on more of their entries than the opponents did (52.8% of the Flyers' entries were by carry or pass, compared to 51.4% for the opponents).
- Geoff recorded an awful lot of events, and deserves an awful lot of appreciation.
Zone scores and score effects
The zone entry data allows us to separate out components of shot differential that come from offensive zone, neutral zone, or defensive zone play.
The first table of this article allows us to calculate offensive zone and defensive zone scores, and the second table allows us to calculate a neutral zone score. The score answers the question "how did the team's performance in that zone affect their shot differential".
For example, to work out the offensive zone score, you plug in the team's actual shots per entry with possession, their actual shots per entry without possession, and the average across all teams for all of the other numbers. This lets you work out what their shot differential would have been with average performance in the neutral and defensive zones, which is what I'm calling the offensive zone score.
The result is as follows, broken down by game state:
| OZ% | NZ% | DZ% | |
| Big Lead | -0.4% | -1.7% | +0.4% |
| Close | -0.7% | +2.3% | -0.7% |
| Big Trail | +1.0% | +5.1% | -1.3% |
The OZ and DZ scores are relative rather than absolute (see appendix for more on what this means), but the following seem to be true:
- The Flyers had a big net plus in the neutral zone, but gave back about half of that edge in the attack zones.
- When score effects come into play, the trailing team does better than usual in the neutral zone and their offensive zone, but suffers in their defensive zone as a result of their aggression.
- I like having three bullet points in each group.
Head to head
We can also look at the Flyers' head to head results against various opponents. They played 4-6 games against each conference rival, which isn't enough to draw firm conclusions, but it can be interesting to think about and the large sample size of the zone entry work (~188 events per game) means that even these short series may have some utility.
Here's how the Flyers performed against each team in the Eastern conference this year (score-close only to minimize score effects):
| Opponent | NZ% | OZ% | DZ% |
| Rangers | +5.9% |
-3.2% |
-0.6% |
| Hurricanes |
+5.7% |
+1.1% |
-2.9% |
| Lightning |
+5.6% |
-2.2% |
+2.2% |
| Jets |
+4.7% |
+5.6% |
-1.5% |
| Canadiens |
+4.3% |
-2.7% |
+2.4% |
| Bruins |
+4.3% |
+4.3% |
-5.0% |
| Devils |
+3.6% |
-6.5% |
-3.2% |
| Capitals |
+3.5% |
-2.4% |
-0.2% |
| Sabres |
+2.4% |
+4.2% |
+1.7% |
| Panthers |
+1.8% |
+0.8% |
+1.9% |
| Islanders |
+0.7% |
-0.7% |
-0.1% |
| Maple Leafs |
+0.7% |
+0.9% |
-0.9% |
| Penguins |
+0.5% |
-4.3% |
-4.7% |
| Senators |
-2.3% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
The bullets:
- The Flyers skaters had great results against the Rangers and terrible results against the Penguins, yet the scoreboard had a different story. This is because Marc-Andre Fleury's best performance in his five meaningful games against the Flyers was a .897 save percentage, while Henrik Lundqvist posted a .942 save percentage in six games against the Flyers. Over a limited sample size, goaltending variance can swamp shot differentials.
- While we're on the topic of goaltending, allow me to call attention to the Flyers' -6.5% offensive zone score against the Devils. This is in part because they got 21% fewer shots per dump-in against the Devils than they did against the rest of the league, which may be a testament to Martin Brodeur's puck-handling skills.
- Remember when the Flyers were protesting Tampa Bay's passive neutral zone trap? The Flyers pretty well owned the neutral zone against that defense they were complaining about.
Geoff also tracked odd-man rushes, initially so that we could answer concerns that the benefits of carrying the puck in might be inflated by odd-man rushes. As it turns out, there were few enough of them that their impact is minor -- only 296 of the 9680 even-strength entries were odd-man rushes.
However, it is interesting to note that the Flyers generally gave up a lot more odd-man rushes than they got, particularly against certain opponents. They had more odd-man rushes than only two of their conference rivals, Tampa Bay (8-7) and Buffalo (11-10). Yet several teams got far more odd-man rushes than the Flyers did, including New Jersey (5-12), Montreal (7-13), Carolina (2-8), the Islanders (7-16), and Pittsburgh (9-17). The Flyers' aggressive play does come at a cost.
Conclusion
Overall, the Flyers were very strong through the neutral zone this year, but got outplayed by a bit in the attack zones. Score effects show up in all three zones, but most prominently in the neutral zone. And finally, we took a look at how the Flyers did against each of their conference rivals.
Appendix: a limitation in the data
Suppose I told you that this year, at 5-on-5, the Flyers got 0.56 shots per time they carried the puck in, but their opponents got 0.59 shots per carry-in. This tells you that the Flyers' opponents were a bit more efficient than the Flyers were in the offensive zone, but it doesn't tell you why -- for that, we'll need to have more teams tracked.
If we knew that the league average was 0.50, we could say that the offense did very well and the defense did terribly. But we don't know that, since only Flyers games have been tracked so far; maybe the league average is 0.60 and the blame should be placed on the offense.
We can still calculate solid numbers for the team's neutral zone performance, since that's an internal comparison of whether they got more entries than their opponent rather than whether they got more than the league average. But for the attack zones, we've focused here on relative comparisons: even if we can't say whether they were good in the offensive end, we can still look at whether they did better in some games than others. So there may be a future adjustment moving all of the offensive zone scores up (or down), but the relative differences should hold constant.
Making Things Interesting: The Sixers’ Options With the 15 Pick
For the fourth time in five years, the Sixers are drafting just outside the lottery. Who we taking?Cloyd, Frandsen Named Triple-A All-Stars
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs will have two player representatives in the Triple-A All-Star game, when righty hurler Tyler Cloyd and infielder Kevin Frandsen head to Coca Cola Field in Buffalo, NY on Wednesday July 11th.
The annual exhibition pits the best talents of the International League against the top players from the Pacific Coast League.
Cloyd, who was an 18th round draft selection of the Phillies in 2008, has had an exceptional season. The 25-year-old began his 2012 campaign in Double-A with the Reading Phillies and has proven worthy of considerable recognition as he has posted 10-1 overall record with a 2.07 ERA in 15 combined starts at two levels. The Nebraska native will start the game for the IL team.
Frandsen, a right-handed hitter that was signed by the Phillies as a minor league free agent prior to the 2011 season, has posted a .290 batting average with 23 doubles, 26 RBI and 28 runs scored in 74 games for the ‘Pigs this year.
Additionally, IronPigs manager Ryne Sandberg will serve on the IL club’s coaching staff.
The International League has won eight meetings in the fourteen years since the event changed to the current IL vs. PCL format. As in previous years, the winning league this season will earn the right to have its champion play as the “home team” at the Gildan Triple-A National Championship Game which is set to take place Tuesday, September 18 in Durham, North Carolina.
Thursday Morning Fly By: Jay Feaster Just Couldn’t Hold Onto His Load of Cash
Today's open discussion thread, complete with your daily dose of Philadelphia Flyers-related news and notes...
- An article on Flyers' first-round pick Scott Laughton: [DurhamRegion]
- Scott Hartnell is part of the group negotiating for the NHLPA: [Daily News] [CSNPhilly] [NHL.com]
- Five Questions: Will the Flyers re-sign Jaromir Jagr?: [Flyers Faithful]
- Ratings for the Draft were down and ratings for the Awards were way down: [SBNation.com]
- The Blues signed Ken Hitchcock to a two-year contract: [St. Louis Game Time] [SI Tracking Blog]
- Canadian goaltenders aren't what they used to be, as CHL teams are taking more foreigners as their starters. This, naturally, results in some rule proposal designed to prevent superior talent from entering the League. [Puck Worlds]
- NHL GMs expect trades this summer as a result of the shallow free agent pool: [Puck Daddy]
- Facts about Rick Nash, or reasons to stay away: [NHLNumbers.com]
New Lineup, Same Old Bullpen
Chase Utley with shades of Joe Dimaggio in 1949, homering in his first at-bat of the season following an injury. (AP)
Not even the return of Chase Utley could save the Phillies tonight, as the team fell to the Pirates 11-7 behind a hapless effort from the bullpen–a unit which has been the Achilles heel all season.
CHASE RETURNS IN STYLE
-Two out, nobody on, 2-2 count. Chase Utley stands in the box for his first at-bat of the 2012 season. Moments before, he came to the plate to a loud ovation. James McDonald stares in for the sign. The battery mates agree on a curve ball. McDonald unleashes the hook, and it loops towards the plate. Off his shoulder, Utley’s bat moves effortlessly through the zone with the swiftness of a mongoose. Like a pendulum on its upswing, the barrel of the bat strikes the quickly dropping curve, launching it deep into the Philadelphia night. The ball would land on the other side of the right field fence, and the crowd would erupt in exultation. In one fell swoop, Utley had announced his return to the Phillies lineup. Screen writers dream of plots with this much electricity.
- Utley finished up the night going 3-for-5. His three hits included the homer and an infield single. He also put a two good charges into balls, lining both deep to center for outs. These were all encouraging signs. Utley showed power and speed, which suggests his legs feel just fine. At least for now.
CHOOOOOOOOOCH!
- Not to be outdone by the first inning heroics of his teammate playing second, Carlos Ruiz would follow up Utley’s home run with a bomb of his own to give the Phillies a 2-0 lead. The solo shot was a good reminder to everyone of just what Ruiz has been doing all season long. The fact that he likely won’t start in the All Star game is a crime.
- Following the back-to-back home runs, the Bank was buzzing, and it briefly felt like the Phillies of the last five years could be on their way back. That feeling was fleeting.
THE DREADED BULLPEN GAME
-The euphoria of Utley and Ruiz’s back-to-back home runs was powerful, but short-lived. In desperate need for a shutdown inning to capitalize on a ton of momentum, Raul Valdes did just the opposite, allowing a go-ahead, three-run home run to Mike McKenry with two outs and the pitcher on deck. With a base open, there’s no way you want to make a mistake in that spot. It would be downhill from there. As quickly as the Phils had taken the lead, the Pirates had taken it back, and the realization that the bullpen would likely make this game difficult to win set in.
- Here the breakdown:
- Raul Valdes, 2.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
- Joe Savery, 2.2 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
- Michael Schwimer, 1.3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, o BB, 3 K
- Jake Diekman, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2K
- Chad Qualls, 1.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
- Antonio Bastardo, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
- You look at those stats, and you can’t help but question just what Phillies management was thinking allowing the bullpen to take this game. This is a unit that came into the night with a 4.46 ERA. That’s 24th in baseball. They’ve been that bad, and they’ve thrown the second fewest innings in baseball (189.2). They stink when they’re not even overworked. How can you justify trusting them with nine innings? The answer is simple: You can’t. The effort also magnified the Phillies’ need to add an arm out there if they’re going to compete.
THE COMEBACK THAT ALMOST WAS
- Down 8-2 with a bullpen rapidly leaking oil, the Phillies looked cooked. Earlier in the season, when the Phillies got down in a game, they seemed certain to lose. But tonight took on a different feel. There has been discussion about the intangibles Utley brings to the lineup–the leadership and presence he exudes are qualities that are second to none. For the first time in a long time, the Phils had some fight in them. The offense seemed calm and collected as they slowly chipped away, getting the Pirates’ lead down to 8-7 with two on and nobody out in the seventh. Consecutive strikeouts by Pence, Victorino, and Thome would end the threat. The comeback fell short, but I found myself believing it was possible. That’s something that hasn’t happened much this season. It wouldn’t matter because Qualls gave up three runs in the eighth.
THE BRIGHT SIDE
- Sure, the bullpen got roughed up, but the offense showed tenacity and moxie in Utley’s first game back. They showed fight for the first time this season. If the Phillies have a starting pitcher for this game, they probably win it and are looking at a potential sweep of the second place Pirates.
NOTES
-The good news keeps rolling in for the Phillies as the team announced Ryan Howard will begin a rehab assignment in Lakewood tomorrow. He’ll DH.
-The Phils go for the series victory tomorrow when Kyle Kendrick takes the mound. Hey, at least it’s a starter.
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