Trying to figure out your bracket

by Eric Schwartz

Monday March 15, 2010 

Trying to figure out your bracket thumbnail

Reading this will not make you an instant winner in your NCAA Tournament bracket pool, but hopefully it helps make your decisions a little easier when going through some tough choices. Like many college basketball fans, I watch hours of games each week and still struggle to grasp exactly who is good enough to go all the way. This year has been one of the toughest I can remember as the parity in the game appears to be at an all-time high. The most complete team in the field is Kansas and they are the safe pick to win a title.

Kentucky, Syracuse and West Virginia seem to be the other favorites, with the likes of Georgetown and Kansas State also getting sleeper consideration.

I am sticking with Kansas, but that’s the easy part. The rest of the pool is where it gets tricky. Here are a few things every college basketball should keep in his/her mind before filling out a pool.

KENTUCKY WILL STUMBLE: At 32-2 the Wildcats have earned the right to be a No. 1 seed and also the praise they have received by many ‘experts’ who have picked them to win the whole thing. Led by John Wall, their talent level is high. Player for player Kentucky has as much, if not more talent than anyone in the field not named Kansas. They also have youth and immaturity which has led it letting a few teams hang in games that they have no business being in. Florida, Alabama and Mississippi all fit that bill in the SEC Tournament.

It’s hard to root for Kentucky. Their coach is brash and his team likes to showboat a bit. The team is filled with NBA talent, but none that will stick around to earn a degree.

Kentucky is good, and maybe even finals runner up good. But they wont win it all.

I LIKE SAN DIEGO STATE: And I don’t know why. Something is just driving me to take them in an upset over No. 6 Tennessee. Maybe it is the low post play of freshman Kawhi Leonard, who had 16 points and 21 rebounds in the Mountain West Tournament final. Or maybe it’s that I just don’t think the Volunteers are that good. Tennessee went 25-8 this season, good enough for third in the SEC, but has struggled against good competition, with losses coming against Purdue, Vanderbilt, Florida and Kentucky twice (the last by 29 points on Sunday). I see an upset here.

TURNER COULD BE CARMELO: When I look at Evan Turner and Ohio State I can’t help but think about Carmelo Anthony and Syracuse several years ago. Both stars turned decent teams into National title contenders. Anthony took his team all the way to a championship. While I don’t see Turner taking Ohio State quite that far, I think he will put on a show that will not be soon forgotten.

DUKES ROAD NOT THAT EASY: If I see one more message board post about how easy Duke’s road is I might get sick. While I do agree that the Blue Devils have an easier road then some of the other top seeds, namely Kansas, the thought that the committee handed them a free pass to the Final Four is ridiculous. In the round of 32 Duke could be pitted against a Louisville team that had a 20-win season and beat Syracuse twice. Or they could face the Pac 10 champion, CAL. No. 5 Texas A&M would be not cupcake either in the Sweet 16. And as for the Elite Eight. Last time I looked a matchup with Villanova is possible. Do people already forget how that worked out for Duke last year?

TEAMS THAT WILL MESS YOUR BRACKET UP:

Maryland: While I have never been a member of the Grevis Vasquez fan club, his talent is undeniable. When he is on his game the Terps become very dangerous — dangerous enough to take down N0. 13 Houston and No. 5 Michigan State. They could even give Kansas a run in the Elite Eight. However when Vasquez is off, the Terps lack the scoring depth to compensate. That means Maryland is also a likely candidate to get knocked off in the first round.

Temple: The local favorite, Temple has not been getting much love nationally as many ‘experts’ have predicted No. 12 Cornell to upset the fifth seeded Owls in the first round. However picking that upset is quite risky as the Owls have played their best basketball down the stretch and should be able to go toe-to-toe with Wisconsin in the round of 32. Despite what many have predicted I think Temple is far more likely to navigate its way into the Sweet 16 than be sent home early.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are a classic case of a team peaking at the right time. From late January till mid February the team was a mess losing seven out of 10 games. However they finished the season hot (6-1) and healthy, and their Big East experience should help in the tournament. No. 11 Old Dominion has been getting a lot of praise lately and will be a dangerous opponent for the Irish. Baylor and Villanova would follow. If Notre Dame (No. 6) can find a way past Baylor and the Wildcats continue to be off their game this team could remarkably get to the Elite Eight.

Kansas State: Some people like Kansas State so much that they have them reaching the final against Kansas. No one wants to see that. The teams have met three times with the Jayhawks winning each one. This begs the question: Is Kansas State a great team that just can’t beat Kansas? Or is it a pretty good team that struggles when challenged against top competition? I lean towards the first answer and see Kansas State getting to at least the Elite Eight. However No. 7 BYU and No. 3 Pitt are each good enough to throw a wrench in that plan. Kansas State will be an interesting team to follow.

So there you have it. Good luck with your pools. And make sure to work hard these next couple of days, because if you’re like me, you will be completely useless to your employer come Thursday.

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