Howard may be the greatest Phillie EVER !

Monday March 15, 2010 • 3 Comments 

I am not by nature a sports reporter.  I started my writing career early in life as a lyricist, then compiled several volumes of short stories, then became a novelist.  I did this as I got my degree is Broadcast Telecommunications and it was always expected I would become either a broadcaster or producer/director/editor.  My life has taken a different path, and so while I remain a wordsmith, I am essentially reporting sports from the viewpoint of a fan with a good degree of statistical analysis thrown in for good measure.

That being said, I did some research.  This is what I found.

There have been rumors of a Howard-Pujols trade and sentiment seems to pretty pretty well divided.  I am a traditionalist and loyalist so I firmly believe Ryan should remain big man on the Phillies teams for his entire career.  And here is why.

Currently the modern player who holds the most offensive records for the Phillies is the incomparable Micheal Jack Schmidt.   Mike still holds the marks for hits, total bases, homeruns, RBI’s, walks and strikeouts.  Howard can certainly challenge some if not all of these.  Schmidt’s 548 homeruns and 1595 RBI represent 11 full seasons for Howard at his current pace, which means he should be getting there around 2016 when he is still 36 years of age.  And Howard has been working himself into better shape as he ages, so I firmly believe he will be a player, barring serious injury, who will play until he is 40.  Schmidt played until he was 39 himself so no reason why Ryan Howard can not do the same.

Schmidts hit record stands at 2234, Howard has 750 after less than 5 full years.  Again, Ryan beats it if he maintains his current pace until 2018.   Schmidts total base record of 4404 represents 10 more years of Howards current level of production so he might not get that one, but could if he plays to age 40. 

Schmidt’s BB and K’s records at 1507 and 1883 may be challenged by Howard as well.  He is certainly on track to break the strikeout records after 4 1/2 seasons with 878 of them, but his strikeouts are slowly going down as his walks go up and he gets more selective at the plate.  If he plays 11 total seasons to get the homerun and RBI team records, and you extrapolate out his current BB and K numbers he would be at 1116 and 2146 !  Hopefully he will strikeout less and walk more, especially if he continues to hit 40 dingers and drive in 140 plus year after year so I am expecting both his career numbers will exceed Schmidt’s before he is done.  

Billy Hamilton still holds 3 team records he established in the 19th century, with 508 stolen bases (OK ! No worry Howard will challenge that one !)  a career .361 average and .468 OBP.  The latter two records will never be touched, even in the new era of steroid influenced statistics, simply because pitchers are better, ballparks are different and seasons are longer with more at bats, allowing batters to need to sustain these percentages for more overall AB’s over the course of a career.   Delahantys career marks for doubles (442)  and triples (157)  are all the more astounding because he set these marks in that same era prior to 1900 but again, outfield arms were not what they are today along with larger ballfields so doubles and triples were a higher percent out of total balls hit back then than today. 

Ashburn the great still holds the record for singles, my guess this is because that is about all he hit in his career here,  with 1811 of them !! And the great Chuck Klein holds the remaining offensive records with an unreal .553 career slugging percentage and  .935 OPS.    Howard is currently at .586 and .961.  If he stays there, two more team records will fall.  

So currently, 5 greats hold all the Phillies batting records over the past 127 years and nearly 20,000 games.   And Howard is the only Phillie to play since Schmidt retired that even had a hint of besting ONE of these records, and I think he stands a good chance to hold 8 or more of them if he finishes his career here.

Now, one word about Pujols.  He rocks, no doubt about it.  But look deeper at the big picture here.

Pujols got an earlier start than Ryan did, and in his 9 years with the team, they have gone to 2 World Series and won 1.  In Howards 5 seasons with the Phillies they have gone to 2 World Series and won 1. 

In Pujols career his team has averaged  90.8 victories per year getting to the post season 6 of 9 seasons.  In Howard’s 5 full seasons the Phillies have averaged 88.8 victories and gotten to the post season 3 of 5 seasons. 

All statistics considered, excpet for the fact that he got an earlier start, these two sluggers are nearly identical on output and team contribution.  But consider this.  Pujols has been in the big leagues nearly a decade now, while Howard is still relatively fresh by comparison.  And Pujols came to a team that had 17 NL championships and 10 World Series appearances in their history, whereas Howard came on to the losingest team in professional sports history, that had a glimmer of hope way back in the 80’s when the above mentioned Mike Schmidt anchored them en route to a lone World Series win they had waited nearly 100 years to achieve.  Here is Ryan Howard taking them there twice in as many years after his team only won their division once since he was born. 

Therefore, is is my assertion that Howard has made more of an impact on Philadelphia than Pujols did in St Louis.  I also believe Albert will be on the decline by his 35th birthday (look at GriffeyJr and his fast early start) which may actually allow Howard to exceed him in career numbers in some categories by the time all is said and done.    The next 5-7 years will tell us if this is truly the case, but I expect to see Howard’s slugging and OPS go up, while his strikeouts continue to drop.  He already averages more homeruns and RBI per year than Pujols does. 

So while I see merit in exploring the rumored trade, I think it would be in the Phillies best interests to continue to groom Ryan Howard to be the anchor on a team that statistically compares more favorably then any team in Philadelphia history.  The current group of players could easily win 5 or more World Series before the older group starts to decline and retire.  And with a strong farm system and the current emphasis on upgrading the pitching staff at every opportunity, I believe team management and ownership is looking at this big picture as well and will make the right moves rosterwise to give these Phitens a chance at becoming the dynasty we have all been waiting for.

FINAL NOTE:   Pujols is a career .992 fielder and Howard .990, so all the talk about how much better Albert is in the field doesn’t wash with me either.  And Howard is rapidly improving in that arena as well.



Trading Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols

Sunday March 14, 2010 • 12 Comments 

The very nature of the idea is straight out of a video game. Trading one superstar for another? It just doesn’t happen in professional sports.

Yet according to sources the Phillies have kicked around the idea of looking into a deal with St. Louis that would send Ryan Howard to the Cardinals for Albert Pujols in what would be the biggest trade in baseball history. The report, which can be read on ESPN.com includes a denial by Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro who said, “That’s a lie. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.”

To be clear, this deal would never happen. You could line up all the reasons why it would be feasible — including Pujols’ impending free agency next year and St. Louis being Howard’s hometown — but you would be wasting your time.

These things just don’t happen. But it is fun to talk about.

So would you make the move?

They both are the same age, Howard a couple months older, play the same position and are on the fast track to the Hall of Fame. While Howard has emerged as the greatest power hitter in the game, Pujols is widely regarded as the best player in baseball. Both players have are loved by their hometown fans and neither has been linked to performance enhancing drugs.

There is no right answer with this one as you couldn’t go wrong with either player.

But who would you rather have?



No more blown saves in Philadelphia

Friday September 11, 2009 • Leave a Comment 

It appears as if Charlie Manuel finally heard the rest of us. I find it admirable that he stated Lidge was his guy a few months ago when the closer first started to struggle and was staying with him to the bitter end. I can appreciate his attempt at loyalty and integrity. But at a certain point, even Manuel had to recognize as manager of the defending World Series champions, his primary objective should be to win games. Lidge’s difficulties this season were dangerously close to infecting the rest of the team.

Tonight Cole Hamel’s evened his record at .500 by pitching 6+ strong innings of 1 run ball. Manuel then brought Chan Ho Park and Brett Myers in for middle relief. After that, for the second night in a row, he brought in Ryan Madsen to close. Now here is the strange thing, the last two games Madsen has earned the save, but he is also giving up hits and runs !

What is it this year about this pitching staff. If you pitch in middle relief or long relief, you are effective but the moment they place a “closer” designation on you, the balls start to fly off the bat ? Madsen gave up a double and a single and allowed a run on a fielders choice before completing the save. He came in with a three run cushion though. If he only had a one or two run cushion, tonight could have gotten interesting really quick. He still has an ERA near 3, but he hasn’t been in that many save opportunities yet.

A lot of people don’t realize just how difficult it is to close a game. You only face a couple of batters, but they are generally warmed up and in a do or die situation with a lot more on the line. The managers are manipulating the lineup for all they are worth, trying to bring about the perfect mismatch. At that point traditionally, it has always been a relatively thankless job, except for the rare times like Lidge had last year when he was perfect from start to finish and his team won it all. Those seasons come around sometimes only once in a career for a closer. It is much more common for a closer to throw one bad ball out over the plate and become the goat, frequently when he is not solely to blame for the teams loss.

That being said, getting Lidge out of that role is the right thing to do. I feel bad he is in that position, but the same thing happened to Jamie Moyer earlier this year when he was pulled from the starting lineup. Moyer has pitched as well or better since the manager made that move, so maybe Lidge will find a better role to finish out the season and help this team repeat as champions. This is a team that can do it. Tonight they won on defense, solid hitting in the clutch, and a little bit of luck. I admire Manuel more for admitting by his actions that he had backed the wrong horse. Like I said before, it is his job to manage this team so they win ballgames, not to win a popularity contest.

This team will be in the spotlight the rest of the way. The Rockies are on a tear, as are the Cardinals, with their potential triple crown contender in Albert Pujols. The Angels are better hitters statistically, the Dodgers and Giants are better pitching statistically. It is possible the Phillies are only the fourth or fifth choice to win the World Series this year. The fact they were 2008 champions actually hurts them a bit with the pundits and sportswriters. Take the Yankees out of the picture, and only one other team has won double World Series since the Phillies last title, way back in 1980. I speak of the Toronto Blue Jays. Where are they now ? Near the cellar in their division.

It is no longer an easy thing to do in a league with a lot of parity considering there is no payroll equality, and the Phillies did spend some money this year to add to their World Series defending squad to see if they could be the first to do it in the 21st century. For a team in the spotlight, it is time to settle down, play ball, and everybody do what they do best. At this particular moment, Manuel seems to be coaching, which is what he does, and Lidge is NOT closing which at this point is what he needs to do.



Threats to the Phillies going back to the World Series (part 4)

Friday September 4, 2009 • 3 Comments 

The formula to beating the St. Louis Cardinals always used to be simple: Pitch around Albert Pujols and make the rest of the lineup beat you. Pujols was the Cardinals lineup. Hold him without an RBI for a game and a win is yours.

Those Cardinals were an OK team. When healthy the pitching was good and the lineup managed to do just enough to keep the team competitive.

Those Cardinals disappeared just before the All-Star break. The current group in St. Louis is the hottest team in baseball and threat No. 1 to the Philadelphia Phillies returning to the World Series.

Why the Cardinals could beat the Phillies: No team in baseball had a better August than the Cardinals, storming through the month with a 20-5 record. Over that period, St. Louis managed to go from second-place in the NL Central to 10.5 games ahead of the struggling Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals turn around began before August though. Things started coming together for St. Louis in July, when it revamped its offense, trading for Matt Holiday, Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo.

Holiday has been a perfect fit with his new team, hitting .386 with 37 RBIs in as many games. While in Oakland, Holiday struggled in his first year away from Coors Field, hitting in the mid 200s. Hitting behind the games’ most feared hitter has bolstered Holiday back into the form that made him an All-Star in Colorado.

Lugo, meanwhile, has hit .322 as St. Louis’s new leadoff man.

Then there is Pujols.

Albert is doing what Albert does – hit for power, average and just about anything else you could think of. He is the clear choice as NL MVP and has a league-high 42 home runs. He should still be pitched around; it’s just not as easy anymore.

On the mound, the Cardinals have a great one-two punch in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Finally healthy, Carpenter is a potential Cy Young, sporting a 15-2 record and 2.28 ERA. Wainwright isn’t far behind with a 2.47 ERA and a team high 16 wins.

Joel Piniero is a solid No. 3, posting 14 wins this season.

Why the Cardinals wouldn’t beat the Phillies: With the way the Cardinals are playing right now it is hard to find a weakness in their game. The middle relief is not great, but has been good enough to get the ball to Ryan Franklyn, who has 36 saves in 38 chances.

The Phillies will have a great chance if Tony La Russa – as he often does – over thinks things. La Russa, who likes to bat the pitcher eight, may be tempted to use John Smoltz in his playoff rotation. Don’t be fooled by Smoltz’s recent start against the Phillies, he’s not near the pitcher he used to be. If La Russa goes with Smoltz instead of Piniero as the third starter, the move may backfire.

The Cardinals also lack team-speed, something the Phillies have plenty of.

Would the Cardinals beat the Phillies in a playoff match-up: If the playoffs started today, you would have to make the Cardinals the favorite. They are playing the way the Phillies played down the stretch last year and we all know where that took them. Of course, there is still a month to go and things can change. If the Phillies catch fire over the next couple of weeks and the Cardinals cool off, the edge would go back to the Phils. Either way I would expect this series to go the distance with great pitching and a few big performances from the likes of Howard, Utley, Pujols and Holiday.

There’s a look at the four teams trying to stop the Phillies from returning to the World Series. Time will tell if anyone can knock off the champs.