Phillies starting pitcher report card 2009

The Phillies and Rockies are deadlocked at 1-1 after the first two games at Citizens Bank park, and now they are off to chilly Colorado.   The talk this year has focused on the Phillies pitching.  Everyone seems to agree the offense and defense are good enough to repeat as World Series champions, but the jury is still out on the pitching staff.  On an off day with no game scheduled, I am taking this time to review the Phillies pitchers; today the starters get their grades for the regular season.

It was a strange year.  Only four Phillies even qualified as starters.  Two midseason pickups have to be factored into the mix.   Two of last seasons standouts made no difference on the 2009 season.  Last years heroes are potentially this years goats.  So here we go.

Definition of starters.  For purposes of this evaluation, we can consider 6 Phillies pitchers as starters this year.  Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton were the only two that started start to finish, had 30 or more games played with 150 innings or more.  Jamie Moyer started off as a starter and ended in the pen, JA Happ started in the pen and ended as a starter. Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez arrived in midseason and started all the games they appeared in the regular season with decidedly mixed results.

Hamels was the best pitcher on the team last year finishing 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA and the much talked about WS MVP award.  Jamie Moyer was a close second, actually leading the team in wins but with a slightly higher ERA and less impact in the post season, finishing 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA.   Both saw their numbers drop off this year, Hamels finishing below .500 at 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA and Moyer finished in the bullpen with an overall record of  12-10 and an ERA of 4.94, but some of those statistics were accomplished as a reliever.

Happ and Blanton pitched little in the championship year, but finished tied for the team lead in wins along with Jamie Moyer this year.  Happ only started 4 games late in their championship run, was officially a rookie in 2009 and starred at 12-4 with an ERA of 2.93, to lead all starters.  Blanton started all year this year after being the Phillies mid season acquistion last year and starting in 13 games, this year finishing 12-10 with an ERA of 4.05.   Both these pitchers showed remarkable improvement over last years statistics. 

Brett Myers and Adam Eaton both factored in 2008, Myers was a non factor in 2009 and Eaton is no longer on the team.  These two were effectively replaced in the line up by Martinez and Lee.   Pedro is still a cypher, starting 9 games and going 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA but leaving three games very early and only pitching 44 innings for the Phillies this year.  Lee was more productive, but even more confusing as he went 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA; at first unbeatable, then going to average and returning to very good to close the season.  And we all saw what he did in his first postseason start pitching a 6 hit complete game for the victory but that doesnt count toward his regular season grade.

So that’s their numbers.  Now, how to grade their productivity and effectiveness ?  The overall staff needs to have a high B grade in my opinion to make a concerted World Series run.  So how do this years Phillies starters, hopefuls, and part timers stack up?

I think we all have to agree Lee gets an A.  he showed us something in his first few starts after the trade and didn’t back down when he saw his stats tail off in late August, probably the result of a tired arm.

Happ has to get an A.  As a rookie, he did something no Phillie starter has done in 50 years, win 12 games; and he started in the bullpen, so he accomplished this feat in 3/4 of a season.

Blanton gets a B, finishing 4 games above .500 but with an ERA over 4.  to get the A grade, I really think your ERA needs to be in the low to mid 3’s. 

I give Hamels a B-, if his W/L percentage had dropped and he had maintained last years ERA I would grade him higher, but he seemed much less effective in the big games this year and he too finished with an ERA above 4.

Moyer gets a B- as well, and this grade would have been lower if he had not led the Phillies in wins (or co-led) for the second straight year, combined with his professional attitude when he was demoted to the bullpen after being plagued with  a 5+ ERA most the year.

Martinez is the hardest to grade, and I would have to give him a C+, only because his grade really should be an incomplete, with 44 innings pitched and only 3 quality starts in half a season with the team. 

This puts the Phillies 6 supposed starters at a cumulative grade right around a B.  Maybe good enough to do it, but I would feel better if the newest Phillies were either more tested in the postseason (Lee) or more proven in their starts this year (Martinez)  Without a lot to go on, it is hard to tell how they will perform when the pressure is on, but it looks like Manuel may start Pedro in game 3 tomorrow so we will get a chance to see if he shines as well as Lee surprised everyone after being awarded the Game 1 start earlier this week.

Expect a review and grades on the Phillies middle relief and closers in an article to follow in the next few days.  They are an enigmatic group, even harder to evaluate, and with a lot more up and down and movement in and out of the core group than the starters, if that can be believed !  I look forward to watching the rest of the NLDS and feel confident the Phillies won’t let us down on their brief trip to Colorado.   Go Phillies !



Rockies take Game 2, even series

If the Philadelphia Phillies want to repeat as World Series champions, they will have to prove their worth on the road.
Starting pitcher Cole Hamels had a rough outing, allowing four runs in five innings, and the Phillies could not battle all the way back in a 5-4 loss to the Colorado Rockies in Game 2 of the NLDS.
Yovit Torrealba provided the big blow, hitting a two-run home run in the third inning . From there, Aaron Cook corralled the Phillies hitters until the sixth when the Phillies battled back with three runs.
Trailing by one in the ninth, the Phils threatened, putting runners on first and second with two outs, but Colorado closer Huston Street got Shane Victorino to hit a soft line drive to second to end the game.
Just as concerning as the home loss was the potential loss of J.A. Happ, who entered the game in the sixth and faced only one batter. Happ was hit in the lower left leg with a line drive off the bat of Seth Smith on his fourth pitch of the game. Happ, who went 12-4 in the regular season, suffered a leg contusion, but reports are that the x-rays were negative.
With Happ unable to continue, Charlie Manuel went to Joe Blanton out of the pen for an inning-plus, putting further into question who will start Game 3 on Saturday. Blanton threw just 19 pitches, so could be able to come back on Saturday or the Phillies could go with Pedro Martinez.
Whoever gets the ball needs to come up big, because the Phillies don’t want to go down 2-1 and face an elimination game in Denver.
There is still plenty of reason to believe in the Phillies moving forward. Although Hamels struggled, the bullpen was strong, with Blanton’s one run allowed the only blemish. It is never easy this time year.
I expect the Phillies offense to come to life in Game 3 and give whoever takes the mound plenty of run support.



Post Party Blues

The past two nights the Phillies are looking like a team that gave it’s all to clinch the division and are not all that concerned about home field advantage for the championship series.  With the exception of another towering homerun by Howard in the bottom of the first (his 44th) the Phillies offense was flat.  Joe Blanton looked equally flat as he allowed 5 runs in 6 plus innings and never seemed to be on top of his delivery. 

Charlie Manuel rested Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino took over the leadoff spot for the night and went 1 for four.  Tracy got his 4th pinch hit in the 7th inning, but was stranded on base as were all the Phillies that reached base after that one blast from Howard.  The real story was the bullpen auditions that occurred after Blanton handed it over and took a seat.  

All the writers on this blog have commented time and time again about the dire situation looming in the Phillies bullpen that will almost certainly factor into whether this team can repeat as world champions this year.  We know they can hit, and we know there are at least four quality starters, and we know they are an experienced, good fielding team. 

One also can not help but notice that the relief pitchers loaded the bases two innings in a row, and gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk.  If not for several good fielding plays, this game would have been a rout.  As it was the 7-2 final score hardly made the Phillies appear to be a 92 win team poised to go to the playoffs.    

The bullpen has had a revolving door on it this year, after being one of the primary reasons for the Phillies success last year.  The only reason they were able to clinch the division was due to the strength of the offense. 

Tonight the Phillies utilized Eyre, Condrey, and new call up Escalona, and finally Durbin, once the game was out of reach, even for our hard hitting Phillies.  None of them were particularly effective in doing their job.  It is hard to say who can provide middle relief and who can close for this team at this point.   I do know the combination of a slow offensive start with a weak bullpen as was evidenced the past two nights can only spell disaster for the Phillies playoff hopes. 

Tomorrow I will be reviewing all the remaining ptichers statistically, how they match up against right and left handers, and give you my vote for middle reliever and closer.  I must say, with the loss of Moyer and Romero in the past week, the pickings will be slim.   It is almost a sure thing that Happ will have to play some sort of role in the post season, and it is possible that his move back to the bullpen, if it happens, could prove to be the action that propels him to a possible MVP with a Phillies series victory. 

When was the last time a rookie won MVP ?  Has it ever happened ? Wouldn’t that be the follow up to last years championship run, to do it again with the help of a young, untested rookie pitcher who steps in at the last minute to carry the closer load on his shoulders ?  I have to admit, although I have been lobbying for Happ to get his chance starting in the post season,  I would be equally interested in seeing him back in the bullpen, but in a closer role.  He has certainly proven himself to me this year, and I believe he has earned the right to show the team if he can hold down a larger role now that the overall roster depth has so drastically changed.

Well, one thing is for sure, no matter if we play the Rockies or the Dodgers, we are going to be in for one wild ride.  I am just glad that for a change, we can actually sit here in October and talk about this and that, instead of the usual “what if”, or “if onlys” that I am used to from most of my late season Phillies watching days !  Let us give credit to this team, for all they have been through, they are one of only four teams in the National League still standing, and who knows how far they can go ?  That is why we play all these games !  I will be rooting from the front row, every chance I get !



Phillies get split in Florida Magic # is 5

The Phillies traveled to Florida to play the Florida Marlins a rare double header. Joe Blanton came out and threw another quality start in the first game pitching 7 innings of shutout ball. The Phillies offense secured the win with an assortment of seeing eye hits, good fielding, baserunning and steals.

Ibanez did hit a late home run but that only accounted for 1 of the 9 runs the team scored in the first game, the rest came on singles and groundouts, a wild pitch and a sacrifice fly as the Phillies scattered 11 hits overall to beat Florida 9-3 in the opener.

Blanton has had 15 quality starts in his last 16 games, allowing 4 runs or less and raising his record to 11-7. In his last two starts he has pitched 13 consecutive shut out innings and lowered his ERA to 3.82. The Phillies reduced their magic number to clinch to 5.

Howard and Werth both had RBI singles and Jimmy Rollins continued his recent offensive upsurge with a sacrifice fly that scored a run as well. Despite 16 strikeouts and going 2-11 with runners in scoring position and having a lone 1 run home run, the Phillies made the victory look easy.

As the season winds down, the Phillies have little left to prove. The Braves and Marlins who both could have challenged for a wild card spot have all but vanished in the past few weeks when facing the NL East leading Phillies who improved their season record to 88-62 which represents their best winning percentage since 1993.

Jamie Moyer returned from the bullpen to get a rare late season start, but you can be sure Manuel was aware of his numbers in Florida. Moyer had a career record of 13-3 against the Marlins and a 8-0 record with a sub 1.00 ERA at their ballpark. Moyer had a strong outing, allowing 3 runs in 7 innings with 5 strikeouts and a walk, but the Phillies bats fell uncharacteristically silent as Florida rookie Anibel Sanchez pitched a masterful 2 hit shutout through 8 innings and the Marlins dealt Moyer his first loss in their home stadium.

The Phillies evening loss was also the first team loss in Florida all season. Their magic number remains 5, but we all know it is only a matter of time.



209 Home Runs for 2009 and counting

The Phillies won again.  Hit 4 homeruns.  Ho hum.  We Phanatics are getting spoiled.  This is a really good team, with a lot of depth.

Example 1. Pitching :  Happ left in the third with a mystery injury, probably reinjured his oblique muscle, and with all the talk about the bullpen, Kendrick comes in and pitches 4 innings of shut out 2 hit relief.   The Phillies bullpen for all it’s late inning woes has been notorious this year for clutch long middle inning relief, between Happ early in the year, Madsen all year long, Moyer late in the year and Kendrick tonight, all 4 pitched 4 innings or longer in relief of starters for various reasons.

And these starters are pretty dang good !  Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Martinez, Happ.  put those five on any other ball club and at least three would make the starting rotation.  Two of the three could be staff aces just about anywhere in the league as well.

Example 2. Fielding  :  Jimmy Rollins is playing spectacular at shortstop, turning difficult plays into routine, fielding the short hop like the ball is on a string, throwing with incredible accuracy.   But Rollins is a horrible offensive weapon right?  1st in at bats, 4th in stolen bases, 7th in doubles, 13th in hits, 13th in runs scored,   Hmmmm, low average around .250 for Jimmy, but overall, not really too bad.  He just appears to be worse than he is because the rest of the team is batting so well.  His 3 run jack in the ninth inning to stretch a 2 run lead into a rout didn’t hurt his playing stock.

Example 3.  Power :  Ryan Howard hit his 40th home run for the 4th straight year.  And he did it naturally.  Another day at the ball park.

I mentioned before it is hard to pick out a Phillies as MVP because they are so well balanced and they all contribute. Much has been made of Albert Puhols numbers, Howard is 7 home runs behind him, 6 RBI’s behind him, and raised his average to a quite respectable .272 in tonights game. If he can eliminate 70 or 80 strikeouts he can potentially threaten for the elusive triple crown.  He tied Chuck Klein for the second place spot for most multi homerun games as a Phillie in team history.

Example 4. Confidence :  The Phillies actually have a better road record than home record, and in the last 7 years they have won 44 games on the road four times.   Only a team with a lot of depth can manage to win away from home consistently.  It takes a team dynamic, and a real focus to getting the little things done to overcome the inherent home field advantage that frequently.

Example 5.  Scoring :  The Phillies very well could have 4 30 home run 100 RBI guys on the squad by the end of the year.  And 6 players scoring 100 runs.   I don’t think that has ever been done.  If it has, I couldn’t find an example of it.

Bottom line, on any given day, any given player might display his talents and assist the team to a victory.  As they head to the playoffs to defend the championship, on a night when the starting pitcher and starting catcher both left the game early, no one on the Phillies bench looked especially worried, after all, they have depth, and plenty of backup and role players just waiting to come out and show what they can do.

By the way, Howard hit 2, Rollins hit 1, Fransisco hit 1, and the Phillies won going away again 9-4 over the “better luck next year Braves”

We Phillies fans are getting spoiled, and I for one, love it!



Phillies have options with playoff pitching rotation

Joe Blanton again made a case to be in the Phillies’ rotation, pitching six scoreless innings in the Phillies 6-1 win over the Nationals.

Of course that comes after Pedro strengthened his case and Cliff Lee assured his. Then there is J.A. Happ who has made a season-long case to pitch come time for the postseason.

Never before has a Phillies team had such a great problem.

At this point there are only two things assured: First, Cole Hamels will be in or near the front of that rotation. Second, Lee will be right there with him.

From there, things get cloudy. For how well he has pitched this season and the fact that he is right-handed points to the notion that Blanton will take the No. 3 or No. 4 spot, but that is not a given. The emergence of the old Pedro Martinez has given manager Charlie Manuel a new option. Pedro threw over 130 pitches on Sunday for the first time since he was a member of the Red Sox. How well he responds to it may determine his fate. If he continues to pitch the way he has (5-0 with an ERA under 4.00) Pedro will be in the postseason rotation.

That would give the Phillies two lefties, two righties and an unhappy Happ. Happ has pitched extremely well this season, to the point he may win the NL Rookie of the Year award. Happ has a 10-4 record with a team-low 2.77 ERA (Lee’s is 2.67, but that is not including his time in Cleveland). Managers like experience in the playoffs though, and Happ is likely the odd man out.

Another reason Happ may be relegated to the bullpen is the uncertainty surrounding left-handers J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre. Each has health concerns and their status for the playoffs is not certain. Jamie Moyer (who by the way has a team-high 12 wins) is not a realistic option as a left-handed specialist, so Happ may be the guy they turn to. Left-handers are hitting jus .206 against Happ making him a good choice for the spot is Eyre or Romero can’t go.

 Personally, this would be my postseason rotation:

 With home field advantage: Hamels, Martinez, Lee, Blanton

Without home field advantage: Hamels, Lee, Martinez, Blanton

My reasoning is simple: Pedro needs to pitch at home. He feeds off the crowd and they feed off him. Adrenalin is what fuels Pedro these days and pitching in front of a sold-out and raucous Citizens Bank Park will give him his best chance for success. Also, in case of a seven game series, Lee would be set for Game Seven. The Phillies rotation without home field advantage has the plus of having aces Hamels and Lee go back-to-back, but does not have the right-left, right-left flow that managers love to send out.

 The job of figuring out the rotation over the next couple of weeks belongs to Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee. In the meantime, it sure is fun to guess.

How would you set up a Phillies rotation with so many options?



Brad Lidge’s struggles continue in Houston

On a warm night after seeing Cliff Lee treated as a mere mortal for the second consecutive start and getting shut out the first game at Houston, the Phillies beat themselves after another quality road start by Joe Blanton,  followed by another blown save.

This time Blanton pitched well into the sixth and assorted Phillie hitters contributed with their bats as they scored 4 runs on 10 hits in support.  It looked like a nice win to rebound from yesterdays ugly 7-0 defeat.  Then 2 walks and 2 hits in the ninth allowed by Lidge cost them another certain win.   For those of you who might be new to this post, I will repeat myself here.  This is a well balanced Phillies team where, on any given night, any member of the team may contribute to the success of the whole.   And any small thing NOT being done correctly can cost them the game.

It doesn’t seem like a big deal.  The little things rarely do, so let me put it in perspective for you.  Earlier tonight, I actually attended the Wilmington Blue Rocks home game.  For those of you unfamiliar with this squad, they are the double A champion team and part of the Kansas City Royals organization whose professional MLB team is absolutely horrible over in the American League this year.

The reason I bring it up is because, even on this high performing double A squad, the little things really do matter.  Tonight’s game was no exception.  In the sixth inning with the Blue Rocks leading 2 nothing, there was a play you rarely see at any level of baseball, from little league on up.  After appearing to get the final out of the inning on a fielders choice, the Blue Rocks catcher was called for catcher interference when he pushed his glove out over the plate on that pitch that was hit.  This negated the fielders choice and the batter got a free base to load them up.  This call resulted in 6 unearned runs crossing the plate.  It was  just a little thing.

In retrospect, when the game concluded as an 8-3 loss for the Blue Rocks, who are dominating their league like the Phillies have dominated the big leagues the past two and a half seasons, it occurred to me, without that interference being called, the home team would have won 3-2.  Instead it goes down as a loss, and not a close one, but if it were not for the one inch or so the catcher pushed his glove forward, there would have been an entirely different result.

Eric Schwartz is currently doing a series on the 5 things that may prevent the Phillies from being able to repeat as world champions, and I thought I would take a moment to recognize this team for all the little things they do in the course of a year to stay ahead of the pack.    Sadly though,  the most likely reason these same Phillies won’t get it done will likely come down to those small things.

The team is certainly more talented and well balanced than their competition, as are the Blue Rocks down in Delaware, but when you repeatedly lose track of the small things, the fine details of the game, the concentration and attention to getting the job done night after night, you rarely repeat championships because everyone else is gunning for you.  And those chasing are less likely to ignore the small things because they know that without doing all the small things right, they won’t stand a chance.

So the only ones that can prevent the Phillies from winning their second consecutive World Series in my opinion, is the Phillies themselves.



Phillies Beat Braves Take Two Of Three

Last night we found out that Cliff Lee wasn’t really Superman after all as the Braves showed up with some Kryptonite, smashing three homers off the new found Phillies ace.  Lee gave up more runs in the fifth inning than he had allowed in all five of his starts since joining the Phillies.  It was the first time in two years that he had allowed two homers in an inning and three homers in a game as the Braves battered the Phillies on their way to a 9-1 victory.

With Saturday nights debacle behind them, the Phillies sent Joe Blanton out to face the Braves and Jair Jurrjens in front of a national audience on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast.  The Braves struck first as Martin Prado took Blanton deep with one out in the first inning to give the Braves a 1-0 lead.

Jurrjens was tough as he put down the first seven Phillies in order before allowing a double to Carlos Ruiz with one out in the 3rd but Jurrjens worked out of the inning by retiring  Blanton on a groundball and Rollins on a flyball to centerfield.   The Phillies would finally get on the board in the fourth courtesy of Chase Utley’s 29th homerun which curled just inside the rightfield foul pole.  It was the first homer ever allowed by Jurrjens at Citizens Bank Park.  Only Esteban Loaiza, Chad Billingsly and Tim Redding had made at least four starts at CBP and not allowed a homer.  Chase took Jurrjens off that list and tied the score at 1-1.

The Phillies blew a big opportunity in the fifth inning as they loaded the bases with nobody out and Joe Blanton worked the count to 2-2 before hitting a liner to first baseman Adam LaRoche who easily doubled off Ruiz.  Jimmy Rollins again ended an inning, this time by grounding out to Prado as the faithful began to boo the missed opportunity.

Two innings later the Phillies were given another opportunity and this time they did not disappoint.   After Ibanez walked to lead off the seventh (his second leadoff walk of the game) Manuel had Feliz try to bunt Ibanez over to second.  Feliz laid down a great bunt which Braves third baseman Chipper Jones fielded and made a bad off balance throw that LaRoche couldn’t handle.  The error put Ibanez at third and Feliz at second for Carlos Ruiz.  Ruiz sent a flyball to deep left field that Garret Anderson got a glove on but couldn’t hold onto.  Ruiz’ second double of the game gave the Phillies a 3-1 lead.   Ruiz would be left stranded as pinch hitter Stairs struck out, Victorino lined out to right and Rollins flied out to left.  Blanton left the game allowing just 1 run on 3 hits over 7 innings while striking out 7.  Madson relieved Blanton and did not record an out and left after Matt Diaz scored on a Chipper Jones single making the score 3-2 and left Braves runners first and second with nobody out.  Scott Eyre relieved Madson and got McCann to ground into an rather unconventional second to short to third double play to erase Prado and Jones. This was another great play by Jimmy Rollins , who also  made a spectacular catch on a Diaz liner to start the game.  Rollins took Utley’s throw and alertly cut down Prado going to third.  With McCann on first, Eyre got Garret Anderson to ground out to second base.   Brad Lidge, again pitching rested, came on and worked a perfect ninth for his 27th save and second in a row since recording his 9th blown save Tuesday in Pittsburgh.

Blanton got the win to improve to 9-6 on the season while Jurrjens fell to 10-9.  This was the first time the Phillies have beaten the Braves righthander in his short career.   The Phillies will enjoy tomorrow off before hosting the Giants, who are now tied with the Colorado Rockies for the  NL Wild Card.



Phillies sweep D-Backs convincingly

It is a good night in Philadelphia.  The Phillies and Eagles both had games tonight.   The commentators finally started to make some observations about this year’s baseball club that I have been voicing on this blog for a few weeks now.  There is deserved attention being given to the Angels .300 machine with 8 of 9 starters batting above that magical mark.  Now, honorable mention is being made of  the fact that the Phillies have 4 true power hitters and 3 run generators in their  lineup; and without the advantage of the DH, they only have 8 true hitting positions that can contribute on a daily basis.  Of course, of late, the Phillies pitching staff has been contributing multi hit games as well !

The only time a NL team had 4 hitters with 25 home runs this early in the season was the 1995 Colorado Rockies.  No MLB team has EVER had 5 players at 70 runs on more at this point in the season. The Phillies do.   No MLB team has ever had 4 players score more than 100 runs or drive in more than 100 runs, but the Phillies are working on that too.

The main reason the individual Phillies have not gotten more press is simply because they distribute the wealth SO well.  I said before, and it bears repeating, this is a remarkably balanced team.  That is why I continue to believe they are the team to beat in the National League.  The pitching is good, but not dominant, especially at middle relief and closer but the middle of the batting lineup can and will carry this club all the way through, and it is possible they will do it without any one player posting MVP numbers.

Tonight was a good example of the dynamic of this team.   Blanton was spotted a 3 run lead, which he promptly gave up.  He helped get the three run lead back with his bat and settled down by the fifth inning.  Then it was a low pitch count from Blanton combined with single, long ball, single, long ball and so forth.  The typical Phillies evening.  Before you know it, it is 12-3 and you don’t care that Blanton gave up 10 hits and 3 runs.

The Phillies home runs are serious shots, frequently to deep center field.  Citizens Bank is a hitters park, but I think the Phillies road record shows the meat of this order can crush baseballs, no matter where they are playing. Through the first 6 innings, the 3-4-5 hitters went 5-9 hitting 2 homers and a double off the wall.  Those three spots in the order generated 7 runs and 7 RBI’s.  After that, the game was out of reach.