If Lidge is “the guy” who was that masked man ?

Tuesday September 8, 2009 • Leave a Comment 

The Phillies came out of their slump tonight in typical Phillies fashion.  There was a moment when it seemed every batter that stepped up to the plate hit the ball out of the park.  5 solo home runs provided just enough support to Pedro for the Cy Young winner to get his fourth win this year as a Phillie.  This team needed a wakeup call.  The series in Houston was brutal, and no offense to Washingtonians, but the Phillies really did not need to lose to the MLB worst Washington Nationals.

Several writers have commented this year that the Phitens rely too much on the long ball, citing their issues hitting with men in scoring position and calling out their pitching for not being able to close or save games.  A lot has been made of the Angels with their bevy of .300 hitters.  The truth is, there are few teams in the history of the league that have been this effective a run producing machine.

I admit, there are many more dingers than drives down the middle of the ballpark, but you know what ?  Fans love the home run, so why not give them what they want ?  And it seems to be winning games the majority of this season.  Seriously though, the Phillies need to settle down and enjoy tonight’s efforts but get ready for the final push to close out the season.  They still have a good shot at getting to the World Series, but in order to win it all for the second year in a row, they need more consistency.  They need to realize every team that meets them during the post season is going to be gunning to beat the world champions,.

The other teams and managers will know the Phillies weaknesses, and I can see a scenario where teams will issue numerous intentional walks, just to get to a situation where the Phillies need the clutch two-out single or sac fly to drive in the important run.  You can’t hit a home run if the opposing manager is smart enough to not pitch to you.  That won’t bode well for their success if this team is not ready to perform under less than optimal circumstances, and beating up on the NL basement dwelling Nationals may make them feel better, but it doesn’t make them any more qualified to win the Series.

Tonight both Utley and Ibanez hit their 30th of the year, and Werth hit his 32nd.  Now there are 4 Phillies with 30+ homers and 80+ RBI’s, putting them in the top 15 players in the league.  6 Phillies rank in the top 20 with 75 or more runs scored, when you add in Rollins and Victorino .  That means over 25% of the power and production in a 16 team league is coming from this club.  So they might not hit for average, and they may not drive in base runners, but they hit and score and outperform the rest of the National League according to these numbers.  No other team has more than 3 players ranked in the top 20 in any category, let alone all three.

So here is hoping, the Phillies continue their long ball hitting ways, the pitching stays just healthy enough and the crafty manager works the talent he has to his best advantage.  The Phillies have only had one losing streak of more than 4 games this year, another important factor when you consider the 5 or 7 game series that make up the post season.  They rebound from most losses well, and just got over a brutal road trip that may have helped them as far as the law of averages goes.  They still possess the best road record in baseball and are on track to have the best overall record in the National League, so it is hard to be over critical of them at this point.  The only true question mark remaining is Lidge, who Manuel asserts is still his “go to guy” and this is key, because any hopeful champion needs a closer they can depend on.  If Lidge is put in to close the bottom of the ninth and gives up 2 or 3 runs, the offense doesn’t get the chance to come back out and smash home runs to salvage the game.  Lidge will need to be at his best for the next month if we are going to repeat as World Series champions in 2009.  Tonight he failed to earn his three outs again, fortunately Madsen came in and picked up the save.  Makes you wonder what Manuel meant when he said earlier that Lidge was still the guy, hard to be “the guy” if you cant get the job done



Threats to the Phillies going back to the World Series (Part 3)

Thursday September 3, 2009 • Leave a Comment 

When I began this countdown of the biggest threats to the Phillies returning to the World Series a couple of days ago, I liked the San Francisco Giants as the second-biggest threat because of their pitching.
And that was before newly acquired starter Bard Penny went out and tossed eight shutout innings against the Phillies Wednesday night.
Needless to say, I still like the Giants.
Prior to the season there was a lot of buzz about the Giants being a surprise team, and maybe even a playoff-caliber bunch. It seemed a bit of a stretch for a team that had won just 72 games in 2008, but the pundits liked San Francisco ’s pitching. The one knock on the team was a big one – its offense.
With only a month left in the season the Giants are still without much offense — yet it might not even mater.
Why the Giants could beat the Phillies: As stated in the previous two entries of this four-part series, the playoffs are all about pitching and the Giants have a ton of it.
Exhibit A is on display tonight at Citizen’s Bank Part as “The Freak” Tim Lincecum has brought his 13-4 record and 2.33 ERA to town. Lincecum is a strikeout pitcher in every sense of the phrase. In 192 innings this year, he has 222 K’s, His walk-per-strikeout ratio is a ridiculous 4-1. If Lincecum was the only stud in the Giants rotation there wouldn’t be that much to be concerned about when facing them. He’s not.
Matt Cain — an ace on just about any other staff — is 12-4 with a 2.50 ERA. Behind Cain is a rejuvenated Barry Zitto, who looks like he has found his curve again, and as a result is a very dangerous pitcher. Then there is Jonathan Sanchez, who, although average at best this season, has a a career no-hitter to his credit.

And now they have Penny, who remembered how to throw a 97-MPH fast ball all of a sudden. They also have Randy Johnson ready to come out of the bullpen.

Yes, the Giants can pitch.
Why the Giants couldn’t beat the Phillies: One player. That is all the Giants have in their offensive arsenal when it comes to everyday players batting over .280 this season. Third baseman Pablo Sandioval is having a great season for San Francisco, hitting .333 with 21 home runs. After Sandioval, though the lineup is thin.
Aaron Rowand has been unable to find the magic he had with the Phillies and Randy Winn and Edgar Renteria are shells of themselves at this point.
If a Giants pitcher has an off game this team has little chance of pulling out a win.
The Giants are averaging 4.01 runs a game. The Phillies, meanwhile,  score 5.12 per contest. Unless the Giants have a couple of players catch fire down the stretch, their offense will be the weakest of the playoff teams.
Would the Giants beat the Phillies in a playoff series: In a five game series I think the Giants could end the Phillies dreams of repeating. In a seven game series, I like the Phillies.
Allow me to explain.
In a short series, pitching can carry a team the distance, but in a long series a team’s offense must be able to steal a game or two. I just don’t see the Giants offense stealing a game on a day when their starting pitching falters. The Phillies, meanwhile, could overcome a bad start from Cliff lee or Cole Hamels because of their deep lineup.
I still would want no part of the Giants in the playoffs. With that pitching, this team is a serious threat to win it all.



Threats to the Phillies going back to the World Series (Part 2)

Wednesday September 2, 2009 • 3 Comments 

This time last year no one could have convinced me that the Los Angeles Dodgers were not the best team in the National League. The Dodgers had deep pitching, a proven coach in Joe Torre and … oh yea, Manny Ramirez.

This season, the Dodgers still have deep pitching, a proven coach and Manny.

For that reason many people think they are the NL’s best team. I just don’t feel the same about them, which is why I list the Dodgers as just the third most serious threat to the Phillies winning the pennant.

While much of the team is the same, something feels different about them. Let’s find out why.

 

Threat No. 3 – The Dodgers

 

Reason they could be a problem: Player for player the Dodgers lineup is as good as any in baseball. Their lineup can hit for power and average. Although no one will keep Albert Pujols from winning another NL MVP award, outfielder Matt Kemp is having that kind of season. Kemp is hitting .316 with 23 homeruns, 87 RBIs and 29 steals. He also plays Gold Glove-type defense in center field, something the Dodgers absolutely need with Manny in left.

Though he is having a down year by his standards (.258, four home runs), Russell Martin remains one of the top catchers in the game. His pitchers love the way he calls a game, and despite his disappearing power, Martin still commands respect when in the batter’s box.

Second baseman Orlando Hudson has been one of the best under-the radar offseason moves. Along with his consistent defense, Hudson is hitting .292 with 70 runs. Needless to say, the Dodgers don’t miss the retired Jeff Kent.

Los Angeles has also gotten strong seasons fro m Andre Ethier (.281), James Loney (.276) and saw resurgence from Juan Pierre (.322) during Manny’s 50-game suspension.

Speaking of Manny, he’s still pretty good. He hit near .500 last postseason and remains one of the best clutch hitters in the game.

 

Why they wouldn’t be a problem: I just don’t buy their rotation this season. The loss of Derrick Lowe was a blow that will be felt in the playoffs.  In a five-game series the Dodgers would send out Randy Wolf for game three or four. Although Wolf has had a nice season (9-6, 3.25 ERA), it’s had to consider him as anything but a liability come postseason.

Clayton Kershaw is a beast with a 2.94 ERA, but also tends to be streaky, as does Chad Billingsley. If they are hot going into the playoffs, this team has a chance. If not, L.A. is done.

The Dodgers don’t have a bad rotation by any means, but they are not intimidating. Derrick Lowe won Game Seven of the World Series with the Red Sox a few years back. That commands respect. This current group is still in search of that.

 

Would the Dodgers beat the Phillies in the playoffs? Tough call, but the edge goes to the Phillies. This would be a first-round match up if the Cardinals finish as the NL’s top seed and the Dodgers and Phils place second and third, respectively. Home field advantage could be huge, but the Phillies showed they could win without it in their playoff series last year. I could see this series going the distance due to the Dodgers bullpen success (Gorge Sherrill has been spectacular since coming over from the Orioles, allowing one run in 15 1/3 innings and Jonathan Broxton remains a top closer).

In the end tough, the Phillies should squeak out a series win due to their superior starting pitching and comparable lineup.

 On Friday phillysportsblogs will take a look at the second-biggest threat to the Phillies repeating in Part 3.



Threats to the Phillies going back to the World Series (Part 1)

Tuesday September 1, 2009 • 1 Comment 

Now things start to get serious.

September is the month on the calendar that baseball fans point to as the make-or-break time of the season. Of coarse championships aren’t won until October, but without a good September, October is nothing more than an early offseason.

As we enter the final full month of the regular season, the contenders have already separated themselves from the field. None of the three National League division races are within five games, with the Dodgers 5.5 game lead in the West the smallest margin.

The Wild Card race is seemingly down to two teams – the Rockies and Dodgers. The Braves and Marlins remain in “contention” in both the NL East and Wild Card, but neither has shown the ability to sustain enough success to be considered serious postseason threats.

It looks as though the teams standing in the way of the Phillies quest to return to the World Series are the Cardinals, Dodgers and Rockies/Giants.

With that in mind, lets start part one of a four-part series looking at the teams that will pose the biggest threat to the Phillies. We will be counting down over the next four days.

 

Threat 4: The Colorado Rockies.

 

Reason they could be a problem: The Rockies have been down this road before. Counted out as dead midway through the season in 2007, the Rockies won 14-of-15 games to storm into the playoffs. From there, they dispatched the Phillies in three games in the NLDS and swept the Diamondbacks in four in the NLCS.

This season, the Rockies stumbled mightily out the gate, opening with a record of 18-28, 14 ½ games behind the Dodgers. The teams decided to fire manager Clint Hurdle – who had led them to the World Series less than two years earlier — and replace him with bench coach Jim Tracy. Since that move Colorado has gone 54-31.

The team has plenty of talent.

Todd Helton is still going strong, hitting .364 and has driven in 70. Brad Hawpe has also had a solid season hitting .298 and driving home a team-high 76. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, meanwhile, has belted 24 home runs. The lineup is deep and has a lot of flexibility.

 

Why they won’t be a problem: Since pulling to within two games of the Dodgers for the NL West lead last Tuesday, the Rockies have lost five straight including being swept by the  Giants, who grabbed a share of the Wild Card lead. Unlike 2007 when the Rockies peaked at the perfect time, this team may have peaked a bit early.

The rotation also leaves plenty to be desired. Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Marquis have combined to win 26 games at the top of the rotation, but things fall off big time after that. While Jason Hamel, Aaron Cook and De La Rosa all post a winning record, their average ERA is 4.50. Unless one pitcher gets hot down the stretch, the lack of a clear No.3 starter could be the team’s downfall.

 

Would the Rockies beat the Phillies in the playoffs? Not likely.

With Cliff Lee, World Series MVP Cole Hamels and a playoff-tested Joe Blaton the Phillies would have a big edge on the mound. And while the Rockies have a deep lineup, the loss of Matt Holiday (more on him in a later edition) keeps them below the Phillies in terms of feared offensives. Of course it is possible for this Rockies team to find the magic that the 2007 team had in the postseason, but that type of run rarely happens twice.

Think of it another way:   If given a choice of managers to play against between Joe Torre, Tony La Russa and Joe Tracy, who wouldn’t rather face Tracy’s team? (Remember, I the Rockies are in the Giants won’t be, so Bruce Bochy is not n the conversation.)

In short, the Rockies are a threat, just not the most serious one.

Agree? Disagree? Discuss bellow and check back on Wednesday to find out which team I considered the third biggest threat to the Phillies quest to repeat.



Who ever said baseball is boring?

Monday August 24, 2009 • Leave a Comment 

Isn’t the biggest flaw against baseball supposed to be that it’s just too boring? Well there was certainly nothing boring about the Phillies 9-7 win over the Mets on Sunday.

The game featured an inside-the-park home run and a triple play – and those were just the bookends.

The game had more intrigue than any baseball fan could rightfully ask for.

For starters, Pedro Martinez was set to make his third start in a Phillies uniform and do so against the team he spent the previous three seasons with. Martinez squared off against Oliver Perez, who can be electric one day and erratic, the next.

Before Pedro got to toss a pitch against the Mets, Perez was sent to the shower, allowing six runs in just 2/3 of an inning. The left-hander was all over the place and the Phils took advantage, with Jason Werth and Carlos Ruiz blasting three run home runs to give Pedro another big lead.

Martinez was hardly anything to write home about. He gave back two runs in the bottom of the first and two more in the hired. For the game, he finished having thrown six innings, allowing four runs and raising his ERA to 5.13. But he also finished with his second win against zero losses.

The oddest run Martinez allowed came off the bat of Angel Pagan, who led off the bottom of the first with an inside-the-park home run. Pagan hit a fly to deep center that landed past Shane Victorino and stuck into a crevice between the bottom of the wall and the ground. Victorino raised his hand hoping for a dead ball ruling and an automatic double. While Victorino waited for the call that never came, Pagan raced around the bases. Raul Ibanez wisely picked up the ball and fired it in, but it was far too late to get Pagan. You could watch a life-time full of baseball and not see a play quite like that.

The same could be said about the game-ending triple play. In fact, no game had ended in such fashion since 1927 and I doubt many of our readers were tuned in for that one.

The Phils found themselves in a clinging to a 9-7 lead due to the struggles of closer Brad Lidge and some shaky defense by reserve Eric Bruntlett, who was giving Chase Utley a rare day off. The Mets had scored once already and had runners on first and second with no outs and Jeff Francoeur at the plate.

Last Sunday night I recall Joe Morgan of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball talking about the fact that managers rarely put a double-steal on with no-outs because of the possibility of a line-drive triple play. At the time I thought the notion was a little extreme due to the fact that the triple play is so rare.

I was wrong. Jerry Manuel was really wrong.

Manuel sent the runners and Francoeur hit a bullet up the middle that was caught by Bruntlett, who proceeded to tag second and then the runner heading to second for the game-ending triple play.

In a way, the game was a microcosm of the way the season has gone for the Phillies and Mets. The Phillies have found ways to win – sometimes with great pitching and other times with the long-ball. They can win big and win close. Sometimes it’s pretty, some times it’s ugly. Times like Sunday, it is just plain strange. Meanwhile the Mets have lost contests in ways that Hollywood couldn’t script.

New York lost a game when Ryan Church missed third base on his way to home plate. A couple of weeks later, second baseman Luis Castillo dropped a pop fly with two outs in the ninth inning, allowing the Yankees to steal the game’s tying and winning runs. Then on Sunday, a triple play.

It’s why the Phils are running away with the NL East and the Mets are – well – a mess.

The Phils sent Cliff Lee to the mound to finish off the series win. By time of publication, Lee hadn’t given up an earned run and Ryan Howard had hit two home runs, driving in five.

It looks like the Phillies are using the conventional manner this time around.



Philles-Mets: Little drama this time around

Friday August 21, 2009 • Leave a Comment 

It’s late August and the baseball calendar had presented fans with what has become one of the greatest rivalries in the game. At least that’s what we have all gotten accustomed to.

When the Phillies take on the Mets tonight in the opener of a three-game series, almost nothing will be on the line. That was hardly the scenario fans would have expected in the beginning of the season. While the Phillies have held up their end of the bargain, the Mets fell out of the race months ago when they were ravaged with injuries. Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran each went down with injuries in a matter of weeks and never returned. The one mainstay in the Mets lineup had been David Wright and that came to an end last weekend when he was hit in the head with a fastball and placed on the DL with post-concussion syndrome.

So when the rivalry renews tonight, the Phils will face a lineup with the likes of Angel Pagan, Corey Sullivan, Fernando Tatis and Anderson Hernandez. It is the type of lineup that has led to the Mets falling 13 ½ games behind the Phils and out of contention for the Wild Card.

The Phillies, meanwhile, have overcome a slow start to pull away from the Braves and Marlins in the NL East. Expect the Mets new home (Citi Field) to be loaded with Phils fans tonight who are looking to check out a new balk park and see the Mets suffer all I one night.

At the very least the Phils should take two-of-three from the Mets and have the opportunity win running away as they did against the Diamondbacks.

Philadelphia has a clear pitching advantage in the first two games, with Cole Hamels taking on Mike Pelfrey tonight and J.A. Happ facing the erratic Tim Redding tomorrow. The wildcard comes on Sunday when Pedro faces his former team and erratic left-hander Oliver Perez.

It will be odd watching this series and knowing it will have little impact in the standings. However for Phillies fans, the weekend should also be a lot of fun.



MVP Cole Hamels takes back seat to Cliff Lee

Thursday August 20, 2009 • 5 Comments 

Phillies fans may never forget the playoff and World Series performances put together by Cole Hamels last postseason.

In five starts Hamels went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA. The Phillies won both of Hamels starts in the Fall Classic, earning the young left-hander the World Series MVP award.

However, even with that data on his resume, there is little arguing that Hamels should not get the ball if – and when – the Phillies 2009 postseason begins.

The reason is simple: Cliff Lee.

Since arriving in Philadelphia by way of trade last month, Lee has been the definition of a staff ace. He as gone 4-0 with a minuscule 0.83 ERA, with his best performance coming Wednesday night when he hurled a complete game, two hit, seven strikeout performance.

Lee as a No. 1 also has an extra bonus – he is not afraid to pitch on three days rest. Lee has done it in the past and almost certainly would do it again if the situation called for it. Hamels has been reluctant to change his pitching schedule in the past, something that has irked Phillies fans (well at least it did before he helped the city finally see a major title).

With Lee and Hamels planted as the top two pitchers in the postseason staff and Joe Blanton (a right hander) almost certain to take the No. 3 spot, the only battle that remains is the fight for No. 4.

On paper, the front-runner is J.A. Happ, who prior to the arrival of Lee, was the Phillies top pitcher. However, as it was discussed on Daily News Live on Wednesday, managers are reluctant to start young pitchers in the postseason. The other candidates to fill the final starting job are Jamie Moyer and Pedro Martinez. The organization has already yanked Moyer from the rotation so it seems highly unlikely they would use him there in the playoffs.

The Phillies brought in Pedro with hopes of him finding his old form and becoming a bit of an “X” factor in the playoffs.

The next month will determine how much, if any, time Pedro sees in the rotation came October.

Barring Pedro finding a gear he hasn’t shown since 2005, when he won 15 games with the Mets, the edge has to go to Happ. Young or not, Happ has five wins this season and an outstanding 2.66 ERA. He has earned his shot.

Of course, in the ever-fickle game of baseball, all of this could change over the next month. Injuries and performances could change the pecking order. For now, the Phils look to have a solid postseason rotation.

It’s a good sign when the reigning World Series MVP can’t even be considered your ace.



Phillies Need To Pay For Halladay

Monday July 27, 2009 • Leave a Comment 

The rumors are flying as the trade deadline approaches regarding the talks between the Blue Jays and Phillies regarding Roy Halladay.  Its been reported that the Blue Jays will not accept anything less than JA Haap, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown while the Phillies do not want to give up Brown or Drabek and countered with an offer that included JA Haap and Jason Donald but did not include either Drabek and Brown.

My advice to the Phillies, and I certainly am not footing the bill here, is to make the trade.  Sure Drabek could be the next Tom Seaver and he could also be the next Brad Brink.  JA Haap is having a nice start, but he hasn’t seen the league a second time yet so we haven’t seen the league adjust to him and vice-versa.  He could be the next Steve Carlton, but he could also be the next Mike Grace or Marty Bystrom.  Roy Halladay is the real thing.  He’s only 32 years old and is a real live bona-fide ace that would take a huge load off of Cole Hamels for the rest of this year and next year.  Yup, I said next year because Hallady isn’t just a rent a player, he’s signed through next season as well.  The Phillies contend they don’t want to dump their future but at the same time when you have a chance to put together back-to-back Championship seasons who really cares about the future?  By the time Drabek and Brown are contributing, Rollins, Howard and Utley will all be on the wrong side of 30, and you can’t tell me they signed a 37 year old Ibanez because they were concerned about 2010.  Its about winning now and Hallady gives you that chance.  How bad will it look if they don’t make the deal and they have to face Halladay either in the NL Playoffs or World Series? Even worse, how bad will it look if they are wrong about Drabek?

Make the deal, and don’t look back.